From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”