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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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