It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
