🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.